894 Series III Volume II- Serial 123 - Union Letters, Orders, Reports
Page 894 | CORRESPONDENCE, ETC. |
do not state this inconsiderately. At the same ration of increase which we have maintained, on an average, from our first national census in 1790 until that of 1860, we should in 1900 have a population of 103,208,415. And why may we not continue that ration far beyond that period? Our abundant room - our broad national homestead - is our ample resource. Were our territory as limited as are the British Isles, very certainly our population could not expand as states. Instead of receiving the foreign born, as now, we should be compelled to send part of the native born away. But such is not our condition. We have 2,963,000 square miles. Europe has 3,800,000, with a population averaging seventy-three and one-third persons to the square miles. Why may not our country at some time average as many? Is it less fertile? Has it more waste surface by mountains, rivers, lakes, deserts, or other causes? Is it inferior to Europe in any natural advantage? If, then, we are at some time to be as populous as Europe, how soon? As to when this may be, we can judge by the past and the present; as to when it will be, if ever, depends much on whether we maintain the Union. Several of our States are already above the average of Europe - seventy-three and one-third to the square mile. Massachusetts has 157; Rhode Island, 133; Connecticut, 99; New York and New Jersey, each 80. Also two other great States, Pennsylvania and Ohio, are not far below, the former having 63 and the latter 59. The States already above the Europan averga, except New York, have increased in as rapid a ration, since passing that point, as ever before; while no one of them is equal to some other parts of our country in natural capacity for sustaining a dense population.
Taking the nation in the aggregate, we find its population and ration if increase for the several decennial periods to be as follows:
Population. Ratio of increase.
Per cent.
1790 3,929,827 ...
1800 5,305,937 35.02
1810 7,239,814 36.45
1820 9,638,131 33.13
1830 12,866,020 33.49
1840 17,069,453 32.67
1850 23,191,876 35.87
1860 31,443,790 35.58
This shows an average decennial increase of 34.60 per cent. in population through the seventy years from our first to our last census yet taken. It is seen that the ration of increase at no one of these seven periods is either 2 per cent. below or 2 per cent. above the average, thus showing how inflexible, and consequently how reliable, the law of increase in our case is. Assuming that it will continue gives the following results:
1870........................ 42,323,341
1880........................ 56,967,216
1890........................ 76,677,872
1900........................103,208,415
1910........................138,918,526
1920........................186,984,335
1930........................251,680,914
These figures show that our country may be as populous as Europe now is at some point between 1920 and 1930 - say about 1925 - our territory, at seventy-three and a third persons to the square mile, being of capacity to contain 217, 186,00.
And we will reach this, too, of we do not ourselves relinquish the chance by the folly and evils of disunion or by long and exhausting
Page 894 | CORRESPONDENCE, ETC. |